War-torn Burma Goes to the Polls in Widely Criticised Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote broadly rejected as a sham, with key opposition groups dissolved, numerous figures imprisoned and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Staggered Vote Amid Conflict

The military government is conducting a phased ballot nearly five years after it seized power in a coup, which sparked widespread opposition and escalated into a civil war.

Analysts note the junta, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and consolidate its power as it seeks a way out of the devastating deadlock.

"There are no conditions for the practice of the freedoms of free speech, association or peaceful assembly," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk said.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for interfering with or criticising the election under a new law which imposes severe punishments, including the death penalty.

Director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each given a seven-year jail term after speaking out against a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk said in a statement, adding that armed rebel groups have issued their own threats asking people to boycott the polls.

The military has been fighting on several fronts, against both pro-democracy fighters who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but regained territory this year after sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive logistical challenge for conducting an election.

A Limited Vote

Voting is set to take place in three phases over the next month in 274 of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will hold elections, making it challenging to forecast a possible turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while another 51 parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's key leaders have been imprisoned under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while others are in exile.

Criticism and Rejection

"By splitting the vote into phases, the authorities can change their approach if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the UK and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has called for political dialogue to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has rejected condemnation of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "restore a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the citizens of Myanmar. It is not being held for the outside world," a military representative told a briefing last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are rejecting "progress toward democracy".